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Long term prices are expected to firm from current lows, but oversupply and stock drawdowns will smooth price increases.Vancouver fob prices are expected to firm as the decline of gas-based sulphur production, combined with a recovery in Chinese sulphur demand, is expected to support stronger prices from the region.
Black Sea fob prices are expected to firm slightly because of OCP commissioning and ramping up phosphate operations in Morocco, triggering higher demand for Black Sea sulphur.
Despite the significant growth of production, the sulphur market is not expected to become markedly oversupplied in the longer term because of the presence of stocks. In 2015 the sulphur market went into a surplus of 980,000t. This surplus is expected to grow to 4mn t by 2021. After 2021, global demand growth is forecast to reduce the surplus to 230,000t by 2030.
- Argus Media
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