With much of Manitoba receiving heavy snowfall in February and March and with spring upon us, many retailers and their customers are now thinking about the possibility of spring flooding. On March 24, Minister of Infrastructure Blaine Pedersen, issued the latest update on the province’s flood outlook. The level of flooding remains dependent on future weather conditions, and the risk of overland flooding has been slightly reduced since the last update in February. However, the risk still remains moderate to major across the province.

At this point, the potential for spring runoff is generally normal to above normal throughout all watersheds, except for the Souris River which has above normal to well-above normal runoff potential.

With unfavourable weather, the current flood outlook also suggests that the major rivers in the province, including the Assiniboine, Pembina, Roseau and Winnipeg rivers have a moderate to major or major risk of flooding.

CAAR member retailers are taking these flood predictions seriously, with some already planning how to tackle this potential problem. Ray Redfern, the president and owner of Manitoba-based Redfern Farm Services Ltd., says that when preparing for a potential flood, his staff are making sure they have appropriate equipment and product available for their customers.

“If a retailer doesn’t understand the risks of their equipment becoming stuck and doesn’t have the expertise to remove it, that causes the crop producer to use precious time to support the retailer. Another way to reduce the risk of retailers failing is to ensure the equipment we have can operate in adverse conditions,” he says.

Significant Pressure

Considering the bad weather and the subsequent reduction of applied fertilizer last fall, Redfern says that they now have nearly 60 per cent more work to complete this spring compared to previous years.

“We started out needing near perfect conditions to make up for the problem we had last fall. We knew how many days we needed to get the fall work done, but we were not able to work many of those days,” he says. “Even if we don’t have a flood this spring, we still have wet conditions and we’re going to need considerable luck and time for Mother Nature to draw enough moisture out of the soil so that fertilizer can be applied, weed growth can be controlled and fields can get seeded.”

Whether there’s a flood or occasional rain this spring, Redfern says the industry is going to find itself under “significant pressure.”

“We can’t just speed up fertilizer application enough to suddenly say, ‘What we normally accomplish in three weeks of spring, we’re going to do (nearly two times) that,’” he says. “If you add another event like a widespread flood, or even a period of significant rainfall, then you’re going to be dealing with saturated soil conditions that are going to stop you from doing anything.”

Since a flood hasn’t officially been declared, Redfern says his team hasn’t discussed how to tackle it since they don’t yet have a clear understanding of the locations that could be impacted. But as the weather gets warmer and equipment is removed from the fields, he says they’ll have those discussions at the operations level.

While they prepare for any amount of moisture, whether it’s rainfall or a prolonged flood, Redfern says he’s feeling “darned nervous” about their level of preparedness for every potential flood outcome.

“No matter what we do, we’re going to be pressed upon in the season when things aren’t going well; it’s when these adverse working conditions occur that the farmer expects more of us. When something goes wrong, we usually fall behind in completing scheduled work and the farmer has little patience because he’s struggling himself.”

Thinking Outside the Box

But when things get challenging during a flood, Redfern stresses the importance of thinking outside the box when providing clients with solutions. “What seems to be a practical answer for one (farmer) is different for another, so you need to have more than one solution in mind because one solution won’t be realistic for all of our clients by any means,” he says.

With all the uncertainty that comes with a spring flood, Redfern remarks on how lucky retailers are to remain close to their customers in philosophy, considering many of them friends and partners.

“In the end, you’re only as good as your reputation, and your reputation means that you come through for your clients and your friends. That’s as important as anything to ensure our industry can respond to these potential crises of excess moisture and floods,” he says.

Click here to view the latest Member Alert on the Manitoba spring flood forecast.

Visit caar.org for the latest information and updates on the Manitoba spring flood outlook.